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Beckford, Bolton Strikers, and Goal Scoring Rates in the Championship

Christopher Lee

After taking a look at scoring rates in the Championship by Bolton’s current forwards, as well as Jermaine Beckford, I find this potential move uninspiring at best and a poor use of funds at worst.

Here are the goals per 90 minutes rate for Beckford and our current strikers in matches played in the Championship.

Marvin Sordell

.40 G/90 min

Jermaine Beckford

.38 G/90 min

David N’Gog

.35 G/90 min

Craig Davies

.29 G/90 min


So, Beckford has the second best goals per 90 in games played in the Championship. If Beckford were coming on a free, I would say that his acquisition would represent a marginal, but worthwhile upgrade. However, since Bolton would also be paying out a report £1 million, I’m less convinced the move is a good piece of business.

To frame the statistics in another light, if Beckford and N’gog scored at their respective rates above (and received identical playing time) it would take Beckford 3060 minutes (34 full games) before he scored 1 full goal more than N’gog. When compared to Craig Davies it would only take Beckford 1080 minutes (12 full games) before he scored a full goal more than Davies. Which, based on Beckford’s average playing time per season since 2011 (2022 min/season), would equate to 1.9 goals over the course of an average Beckford season.

To me, this marginal increase in production is not worth the £1 million reported fee for Beckford. Both Sordell and N’Gog, from a goal scoring rate standpoint, seem to be similar to Beckford, plus are younger. I also don’t see the marginal improvement of Beckford over Davies being worth the fee. I would reconsider this position if N’gog or Sordell were sold for substantially more than £1 million. However, I think it would be a poor move on Bolton’s part to sell either player in response to buying Beckford. The only way such a move would make sense is if Bolton already has an offer in hand for N’gog or Sordell that they plan to accept and know they need a replacement.

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