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For Bolton Wanderers, after a bruising campaign after 45 games it has all come down to one, a home fixture versus Grant McCann’s Peterborough United, who after their own mediocre campaign, will surely have one eye on next season.
Bolton will be fancied to pick up the result, this will be heavily fuelled by being included on most accumulator bets as people will confident that a Bolton team with it all to play for should roll over a Peterborough United side effectively taking part in a dead rubber on their part. The early odds very much reflect this:
Bolton 2/5
Draw 3/1
Peterborough 11/2
(Paddy Power)
The Posh haven’t written off the season by any means and there hasn’t been too much in terms of squad rotation at the ABAX Stadium and I wouldn’t expect there to be much on Sunday. What McCann has done though is experiment, not sexually but with his formation. As Bolton have staggered over the line like a drunk returning home after midnight, The Posh’s form has been erratic but did post a satisfying 4-2 win over Bristol Rovers at the Weekend.
Much like ourselves, Peterborough’s goals have been shared around the squad:
Position Total Goals
Tom NICHOLS Striker 13
Marcus MADDISON Midfielder 9
Gwion EDWARDS Midfielder 9
Paul TAYLOR Striker 6
Leonardo DA SILVA LOPES Midfielder 4
As you can see, the top five all play in advanced positions and with no key figure, there’s little value in predicting a goal scorer for our visitors.
In comparison to other teams around them, our visitors do concede more goals and have only kept three clean sheets in their last 10, compared to Bolton’s 6.
The value bet for Bolton, as it has been all season, is to bet on their centre-backs to score at any time. The pair of them have scored almost a quarter of Bolton’s goals this season. So anything over 6/1 for either player is real value. A smart move is back both.
Position Total Goals
Josh VELA Midfielder 10
Gary MADINE Striker 10
David WHEATER Defender 8
Mark BEEVERS Defender 7
Adam LE FONDRE Striker 5
If you’re looking for something a little different, I’ve found a lovely little special bet with Paddy Power. Bolton have a habit of scoring in the second half while keeping the game tight. I think a draw at 60 minutes 9/5 is good value and something I can see coming off. Not that I have a crystal ball or anything.