clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Why History Suggests Bolton Wanderers Have a 73.3333333333% Chance of Avoiding the Drop

New, comments

Bare facts, bro

A general view of the Reebok Stadium

As we continue to plod through this most boring and depressing of Summers, we have only the thought of football returning in a few weeks to see us retain our sanity.

What else can we do? Bolton Wanderers stand on the brink of what is shaping up already to be a horrendously difficult season.

With strong teams already established in the league, coupled with the arrival of wealthy Premier League sides, our meagre squad of battlers and players with many a point to prove might well be forgiven for looking nervously at August 6th, when the season starts with Leeds United arriving at the Reebok Stadium.

So what are our chances? Yes, we may be in possession of a squad primarily made up players who have struggled at this level, and yes our manager might well be highly organised but remains inexperienced in the division whilst our beloved chairman continues to promise that we will be out of this transfer embargo, but would you believe it, we may well have history on our side.

Let's look at the sides promoted from League One over the past few years and see how they got on the year after in the higher division:

2011/12 - Charlton Athletic, Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield Town.

The season after, these three sides finished 9th, 18th and 19th respectively. All three survived.

2012/13 - Doncaster Rovers, Yeovil and Bournemouth.

A tougher year this time out saw the teams finish 23rd, 24th and 10th respectively. Bournemouth's story would continue, as we all know, with the plucky coastal side overcoming all odds with their mega-rich Russian owner to reach the Premier League within five season. A tougher year with only one side surviving.

2013/14 - Wolves, Brentford and Rotherham United.

A good year for all three saw them survive in 7th, 5th and 21st place respectively. Three for three.

2014/15 - Bristol City, MK Dons and Preston North End.

One out of three this time, with only MK Dons suffering relegation, which is nice.

2015/16 - Wigan Athletic, Burton Albion and Barnsley.

Another one of our three season, as Wigan sadly departed the Championship finishing in rock bottom, suffering humiliation for third year out of four. Huge shame. In terms of this piece, we only had one team fall.

So in total out of 15 possible relegations, only four sides went down. So, stat fans, that means that Bolton, if the above trend continues, only have a 26.666666666666666666666666666666666% chance of going down, which considering what we are facing, seems like a good bet to me.